Pfizer was the first pharmaceutical firm to announce, on November 9 last year, the effectiveness of its serum against Covid-19 , an announcement that would mark a turning point in the evolution of the pandemic.
However, nine months later, AstraZeneca is, with data as of August 12, the most administered antidote. And yet, in stock market terms, the big winner in the world race for the vaccine is Moderna , which so far this year has almost tripled its value on the stock market with a rebound of 275% (data mid-session on Friday).
With triple-digit profits , Novavax follows , with 120%, despite the fact that the company has delayed for the second time the approval plans for its vaccine (which will be produced in Spain by the Galician biopharmaceutical company Zendal) to the fourth quarter of 2021.
Profits that They overshadow the not inconsiderable increases in the trading floor of Pfizer, with increases of 30%, or of AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson , which appreciated around 15% and 12%, respectively.
Moderna is not only the most bullish among its peers, but also of the entire S&P 500, an index of which it has been a part since July 21, replacing Alexion Pharmaceutical. Their stocks have risen 25% since that date, although entry into the index has not been the only catalyst.
“In the US , the application of a booster dose of Pfizer and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines has been authorized for people with compromised immune systems,” they recall from the IG analysis team, which has also boosted Pfizer’s advance by 18 % in the same period.
A growing profit
There is a before and after the appearance of vaccines to protect the population from the coronavirus in the income statement of these pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.
Without a doubt, the most striking case is that of Moderna, a company that emerged in the shadow of Harvard, and with just three years trading on the stock market. Before developing its messenger RNA-based vaccine, the company was a complete stranger to the common man.
In October last year, when it had not yet received authorization for its vaccine, Moderna’s net profit forecast for 2021 was around 900 million euros, according to the consensus of analysts collected by FactSet, while now the estimate is 10,720 million euros, almost 12 times more. By 2022, the market consensus expects Moderna to earn 9,327 million compared to around 1.
In the case of Pfizer, its partnership with BioNTech to put its vaccine on the market will bring its net profit in 2021 50% higher than what was forecast in October last year. From an estimated earnings of 12.7 billion euros, it will go to 19.16 billion this year.
This company is the cheapest security among its peers according to its PER (times that the profit is included in the share price), which is bought at 11.7 times its 2021 earnings, which gives a discount of 27 % compared to the average at which its peers are listed, 16 times.
On the other hand, there is AstraZeneca, the main British representative in the fight against the pandemic. At the beginning of the year, a net profit of 5,552 million euros was expected for the pharmaceutical company, which now amounts to 6,025 million, 8.5% more for 2021.
On the other hand, where there is the most difference is in the case of Novavax. If at the beginning of January, the consensus of analysts estimated a net profit of 1,016 million euros, now losses of almost 500 million are expected in 2021 due to the delay in the approval of its vaccine. By 2022, yes, it could earn 2,355 million euros.
The exchange-traded fund of the vaccine race scores 42%
June marked one year since an ETF (exchange-traded fund) began trading on Wall Street under the name Treatments, Testing and Advancements ETF, the basket of stocks that replicates the PGERM index and includes companies specialized in biotechnology and pharmacy, with advanced research on infectious diseases.
Since its inception, this indexed product has appreciated by 72% and so far this year it has shown gains of 42%. However, since the historical highs that it reached on August 9, it has corrected about 4%.
Of the 78 companies gathered in this listed fund, 49 show a positive balance on the stock market and 29 register losses in 2021. Among them, the German BioNtech stands out, which adds around 365% and the aforementioned Moderna, with 275%. On the other side of the coin are SQZ biotechnologies and Canada’s Abcellera Biologies, which has set back more than 50% since January.
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